Chart of The Day: Bearish EURCHF

EUR: Flows have been more Euro supportive of late, with the single currency getting a lot of that prop from some broad based profit taking on US Dollar longs. The Euro has also been supported on ECB Guindos comments that the risk for a Euro area recession is very low, and on a better than expected Eurozone industrial production read

CHF: The SNB remains uncomfortable with Franc appreciation and continues to remind the market it will need to be careful about any attempts at trying to force an appreciation in the currency. But the SNB will also need to be careful right now, as its strategy to weaken the Franc is facing headwinds from a less certain global outlook. Any signs of sustained risk liquidation, will likely invite a very large wave of demand for the Franc that will put the SNB in the more challenging position of needing to back up its talk with action, that ultimately may not prove to be as effective as it once was, given where we're at in the monetary policy cycle.

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From a technical and trading perspective the EURCHF appears to have completed a three wave correction from its most recent cycle lows setting up the potential for price to continue its dominant downtrend, additional conviction for this view is provided by the highlighted sentiment and momentum divergence.  On the day, a move through 1.0964 today would confirm this view and set up a test of pivotal 1.09 support (the monthly pivot point), a failure here would open a move to test prior swing lows at 1.0853. On the day, a move through 1.013 would negate this view.

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