Daily Market Outlook, April 29, 2026 

Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group

US equity futures are firmer into a pivotal macro/micro catalyst day, with Nasdaq 100 futures at +0.2% as investors position for results from Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta after the close, followed by the Fed policy decision. The earnings backdrop has remained broadly supportive, and tech continues to drive global equities, helping offset the drag from Middle East risk and the renewed energy shock. Asia extended the constructive tone, with MSCI Asia Pacific up +0.3% and now up roughly 14% MTD, on track for its strongest month since November 2022 and outperforming the S&P 500’s c.9% gain. The key question for today is whether the megacap “generals” can validate the recent rebound after a sharp reset in risk premia and positioning. Oil remains the main macro overhang. Brent briefly approached $112/bbl on reports of preparations for a potential long-term blockade of Iran that could effectively close the Strait of Hormuz before easing to $111.19, still leaving the market exposed to a larger inflation impulse. Treasury futures are steady after yesterday’s selloff, with cash trading delayed by the Japan holiday before reopening in London, while gold is near $4,600/oz and Bitcoin trades close to $77,275. For now, markets are looking through the geopolitical shock as long as AI-led earnings momentum holds; but with the Fed set to speak into higher oil and firmer inflation expectations, the hurdle for dovish validation is higher and the equity tape needs clean guidance from tech to keep the risk-on rotation intact.

Australia’s March CPI print was softer than the headline suggested: annual inflation rose 0.9ppts to 4.6% y/y, but that was 0.2ppts below consensus, while the trimmed mean held steady at 3.3% y/y. That composition mattered for rates, with the market reading the data as insufficient to force a more aggressive RBA response and Australian bond yields dropping after the release. The print keeps the RBA on alert, but it does not significantly raise the threshold for imminent tightening, particularly given the need to assess the lagged impact of the energy shock. The overnight session was otherwise quiet, helped by the Showa Day holiday closure in Japan and investor reluctance to add risk ahead of the Fed decision and a heavy megacap earnings slate. Today’s FOMC is unusual given it is likely to be Powell’s final meeting as Chair, which may reduce the market value of any forward guidance in the press conference. The statement is likely to see modest refreshes to the economic description, including language around the labour market, where the current phrase that “job gains have remained low” looks increasingly stale after the latest 178k payroll print.

There is a growing confidence gap between the US and the euro area. In April, the US Conference Board index rose to a neutral level, despite concerns over energy prices. In contrast, consumer confidence in the euro area fell sharply from -0.9 to -1.7 standard deviations, indicating a higher sensitivity to energy shocks. The recent US equity rebound likely bolstered sentiment, while euro area households are more affected by rising energy costs. This situation poses challenges for the European Central Bank (ECB). While weakening confidence typically calls for caution, a significant rise in inflation expectations for the euro area from 2.5% to 4.0% complicates the policy landscape. The US appears better positioned to withstand these shocks, with stable household confidence and recovering financial conditions. Consequently, markets are favouring US resilience over euro area vulnerabilities, leading investors to be more cautious about euro strength.

Overnight Headlines

• ECB Set To Hold Rates As War Fans Inflation, Growth Fears

• Fed Set On Hold As Policymakers Retain Cautious Stance

• BoC To Keep Rates Steady; Focus Shifts To Energy Crisis Fallout

• Canada FY25/26 Deficit Less Than Expected Trims Forecasts

• Australian Prices Stay Above-Target Before RBA Rate Decision

• Trump Tells Aides To Prepare For Extended Blockade Of Iran

• Trsy Sec Bessent Targets Iran’s Shadow Banking, Crypto Access

• US Warns Of Sanctions Risks For Chinese Refiners Of Iranian Oil

• Oil Holds Gains As Traders Focus On Next Steps For Peace Talks

• Gold Steady After Two-Day Drop As Iran War Fans Inflation Fears

• Asian Currencies Consolidate Ahead Of FOMC Decision

• China, US Tensions Build Over Iran And AI Before Trump Meets Xi

• OpenAI Expands Amazon Deal After Microsoft Loosens Exclusivity Terms

• Visa Profit Beats, Revenue Posts Biggest Increase Since 2022

• Booking’s Q2 Guidance Misses On Middle East Impact, Shares Slide

• Mondelez Chief Sees US Consumer Confidence Weakening On Iran War

• KPMG Shuts US Govt Audit Practice After Losing Army Contract

• Citadel Securities Expands In Asia With Big Hires, Block Trades

FX Options Expiries For 10am New York Cut 

(1BLN+ represents larger expiries and is more magnetic when trading within the daily ATR.)

• EUR/USD: 1.2500 (EU1.77b), 1.1850 (EU1.67b), 1.1650 (EU1.6b)

• AUD/USD: 0.7150 (AUD1.03b), 0.7120 (AUD703.7m), 0.6940 (AUD619.7m)

• USD/JPY: 154.00 ($527.8m), 158.50 ($500.3m), 157.00 ($497.8m)

• USD/BRL: 5.3000 ($549.9m), 5.0000 ($506m), 5.2200 ($337.5m)

• USD/CNY: 6.8000 ($1.36b), 6.9000 ($714.7m), 6.7500 ($620m)

• USD/CAD: 1.3150 ($640m), 1.3350 ($357m), 1.4100 ($349.6m)

• GBP/USD: 1.3525 (GBP565.6m), 1.3275 (GBP396.3m), 1. 3490 (GBP363m)

• NZD/USD: 0.5730 (NZD619.3m), 0.5850 (NZD555.8m), 0.5950 (NZD452m)

• USD/MXN: 17.40 ($982.2m), 17.25 ($390.4m)

CFTC Positions as of April 24, 2026: 

• Equity fund speculators cut their CME S&P 500 net short by 12,644 contracts, bringing it to 402,253.  

• Equity fund managers increased their CME S&P 500 net long by 9,443 contracts to 1,020,550.  

• Speculators reduced their CBOT U.S. 5-year Treasury futures net short by 92,995 contracts to 1,532,750.  

• Speculators also trimmed their CBOT U.S. 10-year Treasury futures net short by 9,394 contracts to 790,971.  

• Meanwhile, speculators expanded their CBOT U.S. 2-year Treasury futures net short by 39,547 contracts to 1,743,353.  

• Their CBOT U.S. UltraBond Treasury futures net short was lowered by 536 contracts to 300,287.  

• At the same time, speculators raised their CBOT U.S. Treasury bond futures net short by 9,670 contracts to 83,786.  

• Bitcoin showed a net long position of 2,071 contracts.  

• The Swiss franc recorded a net short of 33,273 contracts.  

• The British pound remained net short at 52,039 contracts.  

• The euro posted a net long position of 41,324 contracts.  

• The Japanese yen showed a net short position of 94,460 contracts.

Technical & Trade Views

SP500

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 7050 Target 7300

• Below 6950 Target 6850

DXY

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 98 Target 99

• Below 97.80 Target 97

EURUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 1.1760 Target 1.19

• Below 1.1750 Target 1.1590

GBPUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 1.3430 Target 1.3610

• Below 1.34 Target 1.3290

USDJPY 

• Daily VWAP Bullish

• Weekly VWAP Bearish

• Above 158.50 Target 161

• Below 157.30 Target 156.50

XAUUSD

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 4600 Target 5000

• Below 4500 Target 4350

BTCUSD 

• Daily VWAP Bearish

• Weekly VWAP Bullish

• Above 73.5k Target 80k

• Below 72.6k Target 70.5k