Daily Market Outlook, November 10, 2026
Daily Market Outlook, November 10, 2026
Patrick Munnelly, Partner: Market Strategy, Tickmill Group
Munnelly’s Macro Missive - Asia’s AI Rebound Tests Froth From Fundamentals
Asian equity markets extended their sharp relief rally on Tuesday as tumbling energy costs, blowout US employment figures, and aggressive dip-buying combined to arrest the brutal drawdown across the semiconductor complex. Regional sentiment was led by Tokyo, where the Nikkei 225 jumped nearly 3.0% to cross 60,460, fuelled by a 15% surge in SoftBank ahead of earnings and a 5.6% gain in Tokyo Electron. In Seoul, the Kospi staged an emphatic 4.8% rebound to 5,262—clawing back from nine-month lows after battery and memory bellwethers were hammered by post-midterm US regulatory panic—with Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix advancing 3.7% and 5.3% respectively. Taiwan's Taiex built on Monday's 4.9% surge, while Hong Kong and Shanghai posted modest, consolidating gains.
The immediate cross-asset catalyst remains the collapse in crude prices. WTI and Brent plummeted over 12% last week, sliding to their lowest levels since August after President Trump indicated that further military strikes against Iran would not be required. Desks have rapidly trimmed geopolitical risk premia following the Democratic midterm victories, easing inflation breakevens and providing central banks with more room to manoeuvre. Concurrently, Friday’s blockbuster US non-farm payrolls (+165k vs. +65k consensus, alongside +84k in net upward revisions) eased near-term growth fears, though average hourly earnings (0.4% m/m) and a 4.1% unemployment rate ensure a December Federal Reserve rate hike remains an active threat.
In Greater China, macro prints presented a striking divergence between external demand and domestic price power. October exports skyrocketed 35% y/y for a second consecutive month—pushing China’s calendar-year trade surplus above $1tn—while imports expanded at their fastest clip since 2021. However, the domestic inflation split remains problematic: factory-gate PPI surged to a four-year peak of 5.7% y/y, while headline CPI stagnated at just 0.7% y/y. The widening wedge indicates that severe upstream industrial cost pressures are failing to pass through to cash-strapped domestic consumers, keeping the PBOC in an accommodative posture even as external partners scrutinise ballooning trade imbalances.
For equity desks, the core debate centres on whether the severe semiconductor drawdown—with the S&P 500 semiconductor sub-index off 25% and equipment makers down 37% over the past month—heralds a real-economy tech downturn or a healthy valuation reset. National accounts data strongly argue the latter: US fixed investment in software and information processing equipment has climbed from 4.0% of GDP in late 2024 to 5.3% in Q3 2026, confirming that the AI buildout is a tangible capital cycle rather than mere multiple expansion. Crucially, total US private fixed investment sits at 18.5% of GDP—a full percentage point below peaks preceding the dot-com and GFC crashes. Capex is being reallocated away from interest-rate-sensitive sectors like residential housing and into digital infrastructure, implying that real-economy AI spending has room to run even as equity multiples compress from summer highs.
The macroeconomic focus now shifts to today's US October CPI print. Median consensus looks for headline prices to advance 0.3% m/m and core prices to rise 0.2% m/m. Because October 2025 data collection was canceled during the government shutdown, the BLS will not publish year-on-year comparisons—a technical quirk that obscures what would otherwise be a headline acceleration to ~4.0% y/y (and core to ~2.8% y/y). Markets will trade purely on the monthly run-rate, where any persistence in shelter or core services will keep the US Treasury curve under pressure and bolster December Fed tightening expectations.
Macro to Micro: Asia's violent short-squeeze demonstrates that institutional capital is eager to re-engage with the semiconductor hardware complex once valuation multiples reset. While equity froth has been aggressively purged, national investment accounts confirm that real-economy AI capex remains fundamentally sound and well below historic macro-bubble extremes. With crude oil breaking toward summer lows, the immediate stagflationary threat has retreated, leaving monetary policy anchored to domestic labor and core inflation dynamics. For traders, immediate tactical focus centers on today's monthly US CPI components, SoftBank post-earnings follow-through, Nvidia export-control legal headlines, and whether the Treasury curve can maintain its footing as the Fed evaluates December hike optionality.
Overnight Headlines
Trump Sees ‘Momentum’ Towards End Of Iran War, Post Qatari PM Meeting
Saudi-Led Coalition Intercepts Two Houthi Missiles Fired Towards Riyadh
RUS, UKR Envoys To Discuss Territory, Ceasefire Monitoring In Abu Dhabi
Trump: US Sees ‘Strong Inclination’ To End Russia-Ukraine War
UK DefSec Calls For New Backchannel With Russia To Avoid Miscalculation
US Inflation Faces Crucial Test Ahead Of December FOMC Decision
BLS Will Not Publish Oct Annual CPI Figures Due To Prior Govt Shutdown
Fed’s Barkin Urges Policy Caution, Says Inflation Remains Biggest Risk
China’s Trade Surplus Tops $1T For 2nd Time Despite Oct Imports Surge
BoJ Debated Need For Faster Rate Hikes, Oct Summary Shows
Australian Consumer Sentiment Hits Four-Year Low In Nov As Rates Rise
NZ Inflation Expectations Are Worrying, RBNZ's Conway Says
Japan’s 30Y Bond Auction Sees Weaker Demand Than 12-Mth Average
Nvidia Spy Allegations Raise Prospects Of Tougher US Chip Export Laws
Anthropic Sends Out, Then Retracts Details Of IPO Filing, Emails Show
SpaceX Plans $24B Data Centre And Gas Plant In Texas
Boeing To Cut 5% Of Commercial Jet Workforce Amid Production Delays
Occidental Profit Beats As Higher Oil Prices Offset Output Decline
Bayer Wins US FDA Approval For Potential Blockbuster Stroke Drug
Japan’s Rapidus Reportedly Likely To Miss Mass Production Deadline
Technical & Trade Views - See Chart Attached
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Patrick has been involved in the financial markets for well over a decade as a self-educated professional trader and money manager. Flitting between the roles of market commentator, analyst and mentor, Patrick has improved the technical skills and psychological stance of literally hundreds of traders – coaching them to become savvy market operators!